Home loan growth peaks in four years

Reserve Bank data released on Tuesday shows 12-month housing growth to October 2021 reached 6.7% – the highest rate since July 2017.

Year-over-year homeowner mortgage credit growth was 9.0%, the highest growth rate since August 2016.

This despite data on ABS loans indicating that homeowner loans are gradually declining.

Growth in investor credit at the end of the twelve months increased 0.2 percentage point to 2.6%, the highest since February 2018.

There are currently mixed signals in the market, with APRA announcing a tightening of serviceability in October and effective in November, with a hike in fixed mortgage rates.

The Reserve Bank’s cash rate is also expected to rise ahead of its initial forecast for 2024, and the CBA has forecast house prices to fall by up to 10% in 2023.

As a result, last week, SQM Research estimated that the rise in house prices would moderate in mid-2022, due to falls in Sydney and Melbourne.

However, Propertyology research chief Simon Pressley said household financial foundations were still strong.

“Australia is rapidly approaching full unemployment for the first time in decades, prospects for wage growth are rising with it, infrastructure investment is at an all time high, there are plenty of industry stimulus packages and households have more money in reserve than ever before, ”Pressley told Savings. .com.au.

“Even if there were a handful of medium-term interest rate hikes, the cost of money will still be ridiculously low. And we have a record volume of homes for sale.”

ANZ slows mortgage leakage

The latest APRA data shows ANZ had $ 260.356 million in owner-occupied housing and investment mortgages at the end of October, about $ 66 million less than at the end of September.

That’s much slower than previous leak rates, with the bank losing $ 1 billion in mortgage customers in a month – where refinances and releases have exceeded the rate on new loans.

The ANZ mortgage leak has been well documented and has been attributed to slow application and approval times, particularly through brokerage channels where some clients wait up to six weeks.

ANZ chief executive Mark Hand previously said this was “a level we weren’t happy with.”

CommBank is generally leading the growth rate among the majors, increasing its homeowner loan portfolio by just about $ 3 billion in the last month on record.

More soon…


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